Comments on: Can’t get there from here? http://wosblog.podgamer.com/2010/05/08/cant-get-there-from-here/ Videogames, media, politics, snacks, Apocalypse, other Mon, 19 Dec 2011 18:13:31 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1 By: John M http://wosblog.podgamer.com/2010/05/08/cant-get-there-from-here/comment-page-1/#comment-871 John M Mon, 10 May 2010 09:32:10 +0000 http://wosblog.podgamer.com/?p=3559#comment-871 There are others who could screw it up, though - Labour MPs. There might well be plenty who would simply not refuse to vote for PR, regarding themselves as Turkeys asked for vote for Christmas. But I hope you're right - there's still hope, despite the media shit storm (and whoever is responsible for the Sun headline "Squatter" should be shot, unless that's deemed too painless for them). There are others who could screw it up, though – Labour MPs. There might well be plenty who would simply not refuse to vote for PR, regarding themselves as Turkeys asked for vote for Christmas.

But I hope you're right – there's still hope, despite the media shit storm (and whoever is responsible for the Sun headline "Squatter" should be shot, unless that's deemed too painless for them).

]]> By: Tom Camfield http://wosblog.podgamer.com/2010/05/08/cant-get-there-from-here/comment-page-1/#comment-859 Tom Camfield Sun, 09 May 2010 08:27:12 +0000 http://wosblog.podgamer.com/?p=3559#comment-859 @ Prue Back when Kennedy and Campbell were in charge, the Libs were on the left, but then there was a change of leadership, Huhne was the candidate on the left, Clegg on the right. Clegg got in (he may be against Trident now, but he supported it back at his leadership election). When he started his political career he was also considering joining the Tory party before he decided the Lib Dems were a better choice. I therefore doubt Clegg has any particular revulsion towards linking up with the Tories. In good news, recent polls suggest that people do want to change to PR. To quote The Times "By nearly five to one, 62% to 13%, people said they favoured a more proportional system of voting." @ Prue
Back when Kennedy and Campbell were in charge, the Libs were on the left, but then there was a change of leadership, Huhne was the candidate on the left, Clegg on the right. Clegg got in (he may be against Trident now, but he supported it back at his leadership election). When he started his political career he was also considering joining the Tory party before he decided the Lib Dems were a better choice. I therefore doubt Clegg has any particular revulsion towards linking up with the Tories.
In good news, recent polls suggest that people do want to change to PR. To quote The Times "By nearly five to one, 62% to 13%, people said they favoured a more proportional system of voting."

]]> By: RevStu http://wosblog.podgamer.com/2010/05/08/cant-get-there-from-here/comment-page-1/#comment-858 RevStu Sun, 09 May 2010 08:01:24 +0000 http://wosblog.podgamer.com/?p=3559#comment-858 <p><em>"<span>Labour and SNP couldn't formally be in a coalition. Even if they were the SNP don't vote on English matters and so no hope there."</span></em></p> <p><span>This is a UK matter, not an exclusively English one, which is what the SNP don't vote on. They and Plaid have explicitly said they're prepared to work with a Lib-Lab alliance for the moment.</span></p> Labour will not "grow strong in opposition". The Tories will gerrymander their new reduced Commons to ensure Labour is locked out. PR guarantees Labour the lion's share of power pretty much in perpetuity. That's an easy choice. "Labour and SNP couldn't formally be in a coalition. Even if they were the SNP don't vote on English matters and so no hope there."

This is a UK matter, not an exclusively English one, which is what the SNP don't vote on. They and Plaid have explicitly said they're prepared to work with a Lib-Lab alliance for the moment.

Labour will not “grow strong in opposition”. The Tories will gerrymander their new reduced Commons to ensure Labour is locked out. PR guarantees Labour the lion’s share of power pretty much in perpetuity. That’s an easy choice.

]]> By: Wb http://wosblog.podgamer.com/2010/05/08/cant-get-there-from-here/comment-page-1/#comment-857 Wb Sun, 09 May 2010 00:13:34 +0000 http://wosblog.podgamer.com/?p=3559#comment-857 Nice post, well written but I can't help but think it's wishful thinking. Why? Maths.   <span>The maths simply does not work to do this, and to argue for it will lead to the disillusion of Lib Dem voters</span> <span>Some maths</span> <span>Conservatives: 307  Labour: 258  Lib Dems: 57  Democratic Unionists: 8  SNP: 6  Sinn Fein: 5  Plaid Cymru: 3  SDLP: 3  Green: 1  Alliance: 1  Hermon: 1</span> <span>So, if we take off SF from the total we have 645. meaning you need 323 to win a confidence vote. SDLP takes Labour whip, Alliance Lib Dem. So</span> <span>Lab + LibD + SDLP + Alliance = 258+57 +3+1 =319  Add on Hermon as a probable 320. 3 short. Buy off the Green, 2 short.</span> <span>Labour and SNP couldn't formally be in a coalition. Even if they were the SNP don't vote on English matters and so no hope there.</span> <span>Even if we add on Plaid Cymru and so get to 324, what are the odds on Labour being able to whip through its entire corpus on a platform of PR?</span> <span>Absolutely zero.</span> <span>The reason for failure to take steps towards PR for 13 years was not that there is majority of Labour MPs who favoured it who were a bit shy and retiring. Ben Bradshaw & Peter Hain are the only major figures in favour, and even if the SNP came into it, 4 Labour MPs voting could screw the whole thing.</span> And, it's a a confidence motion. And, you have to trust Labour to not blow up in a brutal tribal knife fight before the referendum is passed, and the PR bill actioned. Remember, Labour have the most to lose from PR - their tribal strongholds will be vulnerable (e.g. in Scotland, where 19% of people voted tory and got 1 MP), their automatic buggins turns at power are gone, and the left of their party will be under real pressure from the Greens for share of the vote. Even though Brown is crazily desperate to hang on regardless, plenty of people will take Polly Toynbee's advice to "retreat and grow strong in opposition". <span>No, Lib/Lab's only point is as a negotiating position for Clegg with the Tories. Hate to say it, but get used to Cameron being PM and stop undermining Clegg by suggesting he has some realistic alternative to an accommodation with Cameron.</span> Nice post, well written but I can't help but think it's wishful thinking.
Why? Maths.
 
The maths simply does not work to do this, and to argue for it will lead to the disillusion of Lib Dem voters
Some maths
Conservatives: 307 
Labour: 258 
Lib Dems: 57 
Democratic Unionists: 8 
SNP: 6 
Sinn Fein: 5 
Plaid Cymru: 3 
SDLP: 3 
Green: 1 
Alliance: 1 
Hermon: 1
So, if we take off SF from the total we have 645. meaning you need 323 to win a confidence vote. SDLP takes Labour whip, Alliance Lib Dem. So
Lab + LibD + SDLP + Alliance = 258+57 +3+1 =319 
Add on Hermon as a probable 320. 3 short. Buy off the Green, 2 short.
Labour and SNP couldn't formally be in a coalition. Even if they were the SNP don't vote on English matters and so no hope there.
Even if we add on Plaid Cymru and so get to 324, what are the odds on Labour being able to whip through its entire corpus on a platform of PR?
Absolutely zero.
The reason for failure to take steps towards PR for 13 years was not that there is majority of Labour MPs who favoured it who were a bit shy and retiring. Ben Bradshaw & Peter Hain are the only major figures in favour, and even if the SNP came into it, 4 Labour MPs voting could screw the whole thing.
And, it's a a confidence motion. And, you have to trust Labour to not blow up in a brutal tribal knife fight before the referendum is passed, and the PR bill actioned.
Remember, Labour have the most to lose from PR – their tribal strongholds will be vulnerable (e.g. in Scotland, where 19% of people voted tory and got 1 MP), their automatic buggins turns at power are gone, and the left of their party will be under real pressure from the Greens for share of the vote. Even though Brown is crazily desperate to hang on regardless, plenty of people will take Polly Toynbee's advice to "retreat and grow strong in opposition".
No, Lib/Lab's only point is as a negotiating position for Clegg with the Tories. Hate to say it, but get used to Cameron being PM and stop undermining Clegg by suggesting he has some realistic alternative to an accommodation with Cameron.

]]> By: M http://wosblog.podgamer.com/2010/05/08/cant-get-there-from-here/comment-page-1/#comment-856 M Sat, 08 May 2010 23:41:31 +0000 http://wosblog.podgamer.com/?p=3559#comment-856 The lib dems push for STV, not full PR.  The link to constituencies is important.  The BNP could possibly get some of the five seats in a new larger constituency, but only if people who now vote UKIP or Conservative put the BNP first in their preferences. But this is an issue with Alternative Vote, not PR. The lib dems push for STV, not full PR.  The link to constituencies is important.  The BNP could possibly get some of the five seats in a new larger constituency, but only if people who now vote UKIP or Conservative put the BNP first in their preferences.
But this is an issue with Alternative Vote, not PR.

]]> By: Prue http://wosblog.podgamer.com/2010/05/08/cant-get-there-from-here/comment-page-1/#comment-855 Prue Sat, 08 May 2010 22:45:09 +0000 http://wosblog.podgamer.com/?p=3559#comment-855 The most tragic aspect of this result is that democracy has essentially been hijacked by funding considerations. (read Skint vs. Cashcroft) Even if the Lib Dems managed to form a relatively stable coalition with the CONservatives (which I can't see happening anyhow - it's the equivalent of forcing dinosaurs to breed with iPhones) and were able to initiate the process for a referendum on PR, we know - for a fact - that Cameron would simply charge against electoral reform with his vast financial resources and there is NOTHING any of the other parties will be able to do about it. I'd like (believe me, I really would) to believe that the electorate would answer a referendum on PR with a resounding YES! but given the sheer weight of the financial and press-backing that Cameron commands, the other parties' campaigning would essentially be rendered redundant ;_; ;_; ;_; Enjoyed reading the post though :) P.S. Did anyone else see the sheer, bewildering happiness on Cleggy's face when he addressed the crowd of protesters today? His eyes practically welled up, as though he was thinking "THESE are my people!" Oddly endearing, don't you think? ^_^ The most tragic aspect of this result is that democracy has essentially been hijacked by funding considerations. (read Skint vs. Cashcroft)
Even if the Lib Dems managed to form a relatively stable coalition with the CONservatives (which I can't see happening anyhow – it's the equivalent of forcing dinosaurs to breed with iPhones) and were able to initiate the process for a referendum on PR, we know – for a fact – that Cameron would simply charge against electoral reform with his vast financial resources and there is NOTHING any of the other parties will be able to do about it.
I'd like (believe me, I really would) to believe that the electorate would answer a referendum on PR with a resounding YES! but given the sheer weight of the financial and press-backing that Cameron commands, the other parties' campaigning would essentially be rendered redundant ;_; ;_; ;_;
Enjoyed reading the post though :)
P.S. Did anyone else see the sheer, bewildering happiness on Cleggy's face when he addressed the crowd of protesters today? His eyes practically welled up, as though he was thinking "THESE are my people!" Oddly endearing, don't you think? ^_^

]]> By: RevStu http://wosblog.podgamer.com/2010/05/08/cant-get-there-from-here/comment-page-1/#comment-854 RevStu Sat, 08 May 2010 18:03:15 +0000 http://wosblog.podgamer.com/?p=3559#comment-854 <p>Valid points, but remember, they only apply to one election. The acid test of the BNP is what happens after they've been elected for a term. So far, in almost all councils, they're revealed as useless idiots and they get voted right back out.</p> <p>And as I've said, it wouldn't really matter anyway. Nobody would dare do any deals with their MPs, no matter what the policy.</p> Valid points, but remember, they only apply to one election. The acid test of the BNP is what happens after they've been elected for a term. So far, in almost all councils, they're revealed as useless idiots and they get voted right back out.

And as I've said, it wouldn't really matter anyway. Nobody would dare do any deals with their MPs, no matter what the policy.

]]> By: Tom Camfield http://wosblog.podgamer.com/2010/05/08/cant-get-there-from-here/comment-page-1/#comment-853 Tom Camfield Sat, 08 May 2010 17:33:19 +0000 http://wosblog.podgamer.com/?p=3559#comment-853 @ Stu Re: BNP The BNP vote share could also increase as one would assume that PR would allow them to contest through party lists nationwide. At the moment many constituencies do not have the opportunity to vote BNP at all. Also more people would vote for them if they thought it would count for anything. Plus, protest votes wouldn't end overnight. Unless there really is a massive difference between Britain and Europe, PR could easily open the doors for the far right, see, well, almost every European country for examples*: http://www.guardian.co.uk/gall/0,,711990,00.html Notice that the countries with FPTP, Greece and Britain, have no far right party in their parliament. The only other country without them is Germany, which has FPTP and PR, but the PR only kicks in once you have 5% of the vote, which, one imagines, helps keep fringe groups down. I want PR, so I want everyone to be prepared for the kind of scaremongering you'll hear. If someone is worried, tell them that a vote for the German system would allow change, but seems to keep the far right out. It's probably best to do that than to argue that it won't be a problem. PR for the people! * See also: London and the British European elections, both PR, both elected BNP members. @ Stu
Re: BNP
The BNP vote share could also increase as one would assume that PR would allow them to contest through party lists nationwide. At the moment many constituencies do not have the opportunity to vote BNP at all. Also more people would vote for them if they thought it would count for anything. Plus, protest votes wouldn't end overnight.
Unless there really is a massive difference between Britain and Europe, PR could easily open the doors for the far right, see, well, almost every European country for examples*: http://www.guardian.co.uk/gall/0,,711990,00.html
Notice that the countries with FPTP, Greece and Britain, have no far right party in their parliament. The only other country without them is Germany, which has FPTP and PR, but the PR only kicks in once you have 5% of the vote, which, one imagines, helps keep fringe groups down.
I want PR, so I want everyone to be prepared for the kind of scaremongering you'll hear. If someone is worried, tell them that a vote for the German system would allow change, but seems to keep the far right out. It's probably best to do that than to argue that it won't be a problem.
PR for the people!
* See also: London and the British European elections, both PR, both elected BNP members.

]]> By: Grant http://wosblog.podgamer.com/2010/05/08/cant-get-there-from-here/comment-page-1/#comment-852 Grant Sat, 08 May 2010 17:09:50 +0000 http://wosblog.podgamer.com/?p=3559#comment-852 It doesn't matter what the Tories offer. For what it's worth I think they may even offer a referendum on PR in a couple of years time. However it'll never happen. Here's another prediction. The Tories will make  agenerous offer to the Lib Dems and the Lib Dems will accept. Wide spread disenchantment from Lib Dem supporters will follow, but Cameron will become PM. Fast forward a couple of months time. The Tories are well ahead in the polls, and they introduce their budget. After "looking at the books" they announce that Labour fucked the country, and it'll have to be much worse than they said last time. Lib Dems can't vote for this budget, so an election is called to give the country "stability". Result: Conservative win. Or, very unlikely, Labour win. In both cases the Lib Dem vote is massively down. It really, really doesn't matter what deal Clegg gets from the Tories. And if the Lib Dem MPs are stupid enough to think that acting in the "national interest" will save them, then they won't deserve the votes they'll never get again. It doesn't matter what the Tories offer. For what it's worth I think they may even offer a referendum on PR in a couple of years time. However it'll never happen.
Here's another prediction. The Tories will make  agenerous offer to the Lib Dems and the Lib Dems will accept. Wide spread disenchantment from Lib Dem supporters will follow, but Cameron will become PM.
Fast forward a couple of months time. The Tories are well ahead in the polls, and they introduce their budget. After "looking at the books" they announce that Labour fucked the country, and it'll have to be much worse than they said last time. Lib Dems can't vote for this budget, so an election is called to give the country "stability". Result: Conservative win. Or, very unlikely, Labour win. In both cases the Lib Dem vote is massively down.
It really, really doesn't matter what deal Clegg gets from the Tories. And if the Lib Dem MPs are stupid enough to think that acting in the "national interest" will save them, then they won't deserve the votes they'll never get again.

]]> By: RevStu http://wosblog.podgamer.com/2010/05/08/cant-get-there-from-here/comment-page-1/#comment-851 RevStu Sat, 08 May 2010 16:57:09 +0000 http://wosblog.podgamer.com/?p=3559#comment-851 <p>The news media are almost all viciously Tory-biased, so they would say that. Indeed, they're engaged in a massive campaign to try to make it happen. But they don't get to decide, and fortunately neither does Clegg.</p> The news media are almost all viciously Tory-biased, so they would say that. Indeed, they're engaged in a massive campaign to try to make it happen. But they don't get to decide, and fortunately neither does Clegg.

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